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Every political blog has hot and cold running commentary on the failure of US forces to secure 380 tons of high explosive in Iraq after the invasion (and evidence of a cover-up), but I feel that linkpimpin’ Phil Carter’s analysis of how to sustain an insurgency is worthwhile.

The insurgency triad: men explosives ideology.

Think of the Iraqi insurgency as a fire. A fire requires three things — combustible material, oxygen, and a spark — known as the triad. An insurgency also requires three things — men, warfighting materiel, and a spark, provided by ideology.

The revelations that 380 tons of high explosives (HMX, RDX and PETN) were left unsecured after the invasion is certainly in the hands of insurgents and that the size of the insurgency is around the same size as a US infantry division is sobering, if not depressing. That leaves only the ideology portion of the triad unquantified.

Imagine being a citizen, soldier, police recruit… hell, anyone in or around Iraq knowing that potentially 760,000 Locherbie-sized bombs are at large and readily deployed.

What can be done now? Nothing — it’s far too late to stuff this cat back in the bag. We now need to recognize the extent of the threat we face in Iraq. The Pentagon revised its estimate last week of the insurgency’s strength — it now includes 12,000 individuals around the country, or roughly the strength of one U.S. light infantry division. As this report makes clear, the insurgency has access to a great deal of warfighting materiel, and it continues to use this stuff against us in ambushes and IED attacks. We need to gird ourselves for a long fight, and we need to prepare the Iraqis for a long fight, because this fight ain’t going to end for a long time, no matter what happens next week in the U.S. election.